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Inside the Markets - Dubai Edition: Tanker Recycling Outlook, Currency Risks and Market Shifts

12 Sep 2025

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The latest Inside the Markets podcast from GMS, the world’s leading ship recycling company, takes listeners to Dubai, a strategic hub where tanker trading meets ship disposal.
Host Jamie speaks with Simos, Head of GMS Dubai Office, to deliver an in-depth market update on ship recycling across India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Key Market Developments

The Dubai special examines how currency moves, freight dynamics and local politics are reshaping global ship recycling:

India

  • Facing rupee depreciation near 88 and new export tariffs

  • Steel prices holding around 430 dollars per ton

  • Retains a compliance edge with more than 100 Hong Kong Convention (HKC)-approved yards

Pakistan

  • Stable rupee at about 283 with plate prices climbing to around 625 dollars per ton

  • Government approval of a ₨12 billion green yard program at Gadani to be completed by 2026

  • Attractive pricing for Panamax and larger vessels

Bangladesh

  • Activity slowed to a near standstill with plate prices around 519 dollars per ton

  • Only 21 active yards despite 18 HKC approvals

  • Political attention fixed on elections scheduled for early 2026
     

Tanker Recycling in Focus

While bulk carriers continue to earn well and remain in service, older crude and product tankers in the Middle East are approaching end-of-life.
Dubai-based owners are assessing the timing of disposals and exploring forward deliveries, leasebacks and other structures to unlock value while keeping ships trading.
 

Compliance and the Hong Kong Convention

Since the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships came into force, every recycling deal now begins with Inventories of Hazardous Materials (IHMs), recycling plans and yard audits.
These steps slow transactions but increase safety and reduce risk—key advantages for owners focused on long-term environmental and regulatory compliance.
 

Outlook and Risks

  • Expected near-term recycling candidates: vintage smaller to Panamax bulk carriers and first-wave tankers

  • Preferred destinations: India for HKC compliance and Pakistan for pricing on larger tonnage

  • Primary risk: currency volatility, particularly the Indian rupee, which could affect steel prices and buying confidence