Host Jamie Dalzell speaks with Simos Dimitriou, Head of the GMS Dubai Office, to examine how shifting economic conditions, currency movements, and weak sentiment are shaping ship recycling markets across India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. As 2025 nears its end, Dubai continues to serve as a central hub for deal structuring and market intelligence across the recycling sector.

Market Overview

The global ship recycling market remains subdued as oil prices hover near USD 60 per barrel and OPEC+ announces production cutbacks for early 2026. Across the subcontinent, limited tonnage and cautious buying continue to define trading activity. Despite regional differences, each destination is navigating its own set of operational and pricing challenges.

India

The Indian rupee trades near 88.7 against the dollar, while steel plate prices hold around USD 385 per ton. A small number of tankers and bulkers have arrived, but overall movement remains slow. The emergence of a two-tiered market, driven by discounted sales of sanctioned vessels, is distorting local sentiment. Nevertheless, India remains the most reliable destination, supported by a strong network of HKC-compliant yards and established recycling infrastructure.

Bangladesh

Activity in Chattogram is limited, with only a few end buyers maintaining operations to keep yards active. Plate prices have slipped to around USD 529 per ton, and the local currency has weakened to roughly 122 per dollar. While compliance progress continues, with more HKC approvals expected soon, political uncertainty ahead of the 2026 elections continues to weigh on demand and investor confidence.

Pakistan

Pakistan remains the highest-priced destination on paper, with plate prices around USD 614 per ton. However, an influx of low-cost Iranian steel has put pressure on recycler margins. Pakistan is now following India in reducing prices accordingly. The rupee remains stable near 283, yet a shortage of HKC-certified yards continues to restrict activity. Despite its nominal price advantage, operational and logistical challenges are slowing actual buying momentum.

Regional Sentiment

From Dubai, Simos notes that most owner discussions focus on older crude and product tankers nearing end of service. Strong freight returns are delaying recycling decisions, but structured options such as forward deliveries and leaseback deals are gaining traction. Confidence remains low but steady, with owners waiting for clearer signals before committing ships for green recycling.

Market Outlook

The near-term outlook points to controlled stagnation. India is expected to remain soft but stable, Pakistan will continue to lead on headline pricing but face operational barriers, and Bangladesh is likely to stay quiet until after its national elections. A limited number of smaller bulkers and tankers may reach the beaches before year-end, while a more active recycling cycle could emerge in early 2026.

Industry Message

The Dubai Edition reinforces the importance of patience, compliance, and discipline in uncertain markets. By maintaining operational readiness and transparent deal structures, the subcontinent’s recyclers continue to anchor confidence in global green ship recycling.