The global ship recycling market entered Week 26 of 2026 at a major turning point. The war may be over, but the physical market is still waiting for the full impact of peace to reach the beaches.

The formal signing of the US-Iran agreement at Bürgenstock in Switzerland was delayed, but the interim memorandum remains in effect and implementation has accelerated on the water. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz doubled in 24 hours, reaching its highest level since late February, with at least 34 vessels exiting into the Gulf of Oman against a pre-war daily average of around 110. The ceremony may have paused, but the ships kept moving.

Oil markets responded quickly. Brent crude fell below USD 74 per barrel, its lowest level since before the war began, while WTI moved below USD 70. The war premium that once pushed Brent above USD 126 has largely disappeared, shifting market attention away from supply disruption and back toward reopening, normalization, and the possibility of oversupply.

For ship recycling, this is a significant change. High bunker costs and elevated freight earnings were two of the main reasons older vessels remained trading during the conflict. Both supports are now weakening. The Baltic Dry Index eased to around 2,634 from its June 1 peak of 3,222, while Capesize earnings settled near USD 35,800 per day. The Capesize premium that helped keep ageing tonnage at sea has unwound, and the commercial case for recycling is beginning to strengthen again.

The first clear marker of this shift has already appeared. The Andhika Paramesti, a 9,369 LDT bulker, was sold to Bangladesh at USD 460 per LDT on an as-is Sambu basis. One sale does not create a wave, but it does suggest that the deferred candidate pool is beginning to release as the bunker-cost floor falls and freight returns toward pre-war shape.

Bangladesh remains strongly positioned. The Taka held near 122.70 against the US dollar, local steel plate prices moved higher from BDT 65,000 to BDT 67,000 per ton, and Chattogram continues to benefit from yard appetite, plot availability, and Letter of Credit support. However, Ashura holidays and the monsoon continue to restrict immediate beaching activity. The demand is present, but the weather remains the binding constraint.

India is also improving as lower oil supports the Rupee, which firmed to around 94.30 against the US dollar. Alang enters the post-war quarter with deep yard capacity, more than 110 valid Statements of Compliance, and a recovering currency. However, local steel prices softened into the INR 36,500 to INR 37,000 per ton range, keeping India the lowest-priced subcontinent destination for the week.

Pakistan opens the post-war period with the strongest currency in the basin. The Pakistani Rupee firmed to around 278.10 against the US dollar, supported by easing oil import pressure and disciplined reserve management. However, Gadani’s wartime Gulf proximity premium is fading as Hormuz traffic normalizes. Pakistan remains firm on local steel, but its next phase will be determined by price and compliance rather than geography.

Turkey remains structurally separate from the main subcontinent market. The Lira weakened past 46 against the US dollar, while Aliaga continued to price well below Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. Lower oil helps Turkey at the margin, but inflation and currency pressure remain structural challenges. Aliaga’s role continues to be driven mainly by EU regulation and Basel Convention compliance, not price competition.

GMS market rankings for Week 26 place Bangladesh first with dry bulk indications at USD 458–463 per LDT, followed by Pakistan at USD 443–448 per LDT, India at USD 418–423 per LDT, and Turkey at USD 266–268 per LDT. Tanker and container indications remain highest in Bangladesh, with Turkey continuing as the lowest-priced destination.

The main story for Week 26 is the transition from a war-driven market to a post-war supply setup. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, oil prices have fallen, freight is cooling, and recycling candidates are beginning to form. Yet the Indian subcontinent remains deep in the monsoon season, and beaching activity across Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan is still governed by weather rather than market appetite.

The strait fills.
The queue builds.
The yards wait.