The global ship recycling market entered Week 25 of 2026 with a decisive shift in the wider maritime, energy, and recycling landscape. The United States and Iran have digitally signed an interim peace agreement, reopening the Strait of Hormuz after more than one hundred days of closure and lifting the US naval blockade. The conflict-driven disruption that shaped vessel trading, bunker costs, freight sentiment, and recycling supply through the second quarter has now moved into a new phase.

For the maritime industry, this marks one of the most important turning points of the year. Brent crude collapsed to approximately USD 78 per barrel, its lowest level since late February and effectively back to where it stood when the war began. This fall has erased the entire war premium that had carried Brent above USD 126 in late April. WTI also moved lower toward USD 75 per barrel.

The peace agreement also removes sanctions on Iranian oil exports and clears the way for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq to restart millions of barrels of halted production. As a result, the market has shifted rapidly from supply disruption concerns to the possibility of oversupply. The International Energy Agency has warned of a coming glut, projecting global oil supply growth to outpace demand growth significantly over the coming years.

This matters directly for ship recycling because lower oil prices reduce bunker-cost pressure and weaken one of the key reasons older vessels remained profitable in continued trading. During the conflict, high bunker costs and strong freight earnings combined to keep ageing tonnage away from recycling yards. In Week 25, both supports began to deflate together.

Freight markets continued to cool as the war premium drained from dry bulk shipping. The Baltic Dry Index eased to around 2,653 on June 17, down from its June 1 peak of 3,222. Daily Capesize earnings fell to approximately USD 35,162, compared with the late-May high of nearly USD 49,511. Although Supramax and Handysize segments remained firmer, the broader correction in freight earnings is an important signal for the recycling candidate pool.

For cash buyers, shipowners, recyclers, and maritime market participants, the key development is that the deferred wave of recycling candidates may now begin to form. The bunker-cost floor has fallen, the Capesize freight premium has softened, and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened. Older vessels that remained trading during the war may now face renewed commercial pressure toward recycling.

However, the timing remains difficult. The Indian subcontinent is now deep in the monsoon season, and beaching activity across Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan remains governed by weather rather than market appetite. The ships may be free to sail, but the beaches are not yet operating at full seasonal capacity.

Bangladesh remains one of the strongest positioned recycling destinations entering the post-war period. The Bangladeshi Taka held near the floor of its established band at approximately 122.75 against the US Dollar, maintaining the stability that has defined the currency throughout the conflict. Local steel plate prices held around BDT 65,000 per ton, equivalent to approximately USD 530 per ton. Chattogram continues to benefit from full plot capacity, a cleared Letter of Credit pipeline, resilient currency conditions, and strong underlying demand. The main restriction is now the Bay of Bengal monsoon, which is expected to govern beaching activity through August.

India was the largest currency beneficiary of the peace agreement. The Indian Rupee rallied to a five-week high near 94.60 against the US Dollar, supported by the collapse in oil prices and improved external-account expectations. India imports more than 80% of its crude, making the fall in Brent highly supportive for the currency and the broader economy. Local steel plate prices at Alang softened from around INR 38,000 per ton to INR 37,500 per ton by June 19, with the USD equivalent easing to just under USD 397 per ton. India remains the lowest-priced subcontinent recycling destination, but its long-term position is improving through a firmer Rupee, lower bunker costs, and a compliance base of more than 110 yards with valid Statements of Compliance.

Pakistan closes the war chapter as the basin’s currency anchor. The Pakistani Rupee held near 278.28 against the US Dollar, sustaining its strongest level of 2026 and remaining the only subcontinent currency to have appreciated against the dollar through the conflict. Local steel plate prices held at around PKR 195,000 per ton, equivalent to nearly USD 700 per ton, keeping Gadani at the firmest absolute pricing level in the region. However, the peace agreement also begins to erode Pakistan’s wartime Gulf proximity premium. As Hormuz reopens and Gulf routing normalizes, Gadani’s competitive position will increasingly be tested against structural fundamentals such as price, compliance, and available yard capacity.

Turkey remains structurally separate from the main subcontinent recycling market. While Hormuz-exposed currencies strengthened or held steady, the Turkish Lira weakened through 46 per dollar to a fresh record near 46.15, after touching approximately 46.44 intraday. This reflects Turkey’s domestic and structural inflation pressures, which the peace agreement does not resolve. Lower Brent may reduce imported inflation pressure, but Turkey’s inflation structure remains deeply entrenched. Aliaga continues to trade at around USD 268 to USD 290 per LDT across vessel types, keeping Turkey uncompetitive for mainstream recycling tonnage. Its role remains focused on EU-regulated vessels and Basel Convention-compliant recycling rather than price-driven market share.

GMS market rankings for Week 25 of 2026 place Bangladesh first with steady sentiment and indicative prices of USD 460 to USD 495 per LDT depending on vessel type. Pakistan follows with steady sentiment at USD 445 to USD 480 per LDT. India remains steady at USD 420 to USD 455 per LDT, while Turkey remains softening at USD 268 to USD 290 per LDT.

The main theme for Week 25 is the transition from a war-driven market to a post-war recycling setup. The Strait of Hormuz has reopened, the blockade has lifted, Brent has returned near pre-war levels, and freight earnings are cooling. These developments may eventually release the older tonnage that remained at sea through the conflict.

The immediate constraint, however, is the monsoon. Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan all retain demand and yard appetite, but beaching activity will remain limited until weather conditions improve. If candidates begin to release through July and August, and the rains ease into September, the subcontinent could enter the strongest post-monsoon demand-and-supply alignment seen in several years.

Peace is signed. The premium is gone. The ships are moving. But the rains reign.