In this Week 47 edition of the GMS Weekly Podcast, titled Forums and Frictions, global ship recycling markets absorb another difficult week as 2025 heads into its final stretch. Oil futures slipped to about USD 57.7 per barrel, freight remains active but well below last year’s levels, and local steel plate prices weakened again in Bangladesh and Pakistan. At the same time, sharp currency moves in India and Bangladesh reduced purchasing power for recyclers, while fresh US and EU sanctions on Russia and Iran increased scrutiny on dark fleet activity and long term recycling risk.

Global Market Overview
Key macro indicators moved against recyclers through late November. Oil prices are down more than 6 percent on the month and roughly 16 percent year on year. The Baltic Dry Index continues to show week on week strength in many sub sectors, yet it is still around 9 percent lower than thirty days ago and nearly 50 percent below levels seen in November 2024. Regulatory pressure also intensified as the European Union prepared a twentieth sanctions package that may allow member state navies to board suspected shadow fleet vessels and encourage flag deregistration, while additional US sanctions have brought about 170 Iran linked ships into the blacklist net. These measures are tightening trading options for older units and are expected to impact recycling flows over the next few years.

Bangladesh
Bangladesh remains the top priced market, with indicative demo levels around USD 410 per LDT for dry bulk, USD 430 for tankers and USD 440 for container ships. Actual activity, however, is still limited and 2025 has felt “anorexic” on volumes. Inflation has oscillated between 8 and 9 percent and the Taka weakened again, closing the week near BDT 122.5 per USD. Local steel plate prices eased by another USD 1 to about USD 525.9 per ton as yards struggle to sell stockpiled recycled steel, while cheaper imported scrap continues to capture mill demand. Political tensions ahead of the February 2026 elections and sporadic violence add to operational risk. On a positive note, another facility received Hong Kong Convention certification, taking the total to 20 approved yards, and the GMS Sustainable Ship and Offshore Recycling Program has now delivered hundreds of safety and environmental training sessions to thousands of workers, strengthening Bangladesh’s compliant recycling credentials.

India
The Alang market moved into “losing big ly” territory as recyclers largely stepped back from serious bidding. The Indian Rupee weakened by more than 1 percent in a single week to about Rs 89.6 per USD, pushing closer to the Rs 90 level that undermines confidence in forward pricing. Steel plate prices improved by around USD 5 to roughly USD 398 per ton but remain below the USD 400 mark, which keeps smaller and less preferred units firmly under USD 400 per LDT despite nominal indications near USD 380 for bulkers, USD 400 for tankers and USD 410 for containers. India’s broader economy is flirting with stagflation as inflation slipped to about 0.25 percent in October, well under the 2 to 2.5 percent target range. Added to this are two tiered prices driven by discounted dark fleet tonnage and cheaper imported steel. With Alang’s port position down to a single vessel and no fresh fixtures, India risks losing its long held HKC advantage as Bangladesh and Pakistan accelerate their own approvals.

Pakistan
Pakistan recorded the most important structural news of the week as the country’s first HKC compliant yard is set to receive formal approval once audit sign offs are complete. Several more yards are expected to follow over the next three to six months, with additional upgrades planned by mid 2026. This marks a significant makeover for a market that briefly led regional pricing before the convention entered into force in June 2025. In the short term, fundamentals remain challenging. Local steel plate prices fell by a sharp USD 11 to around USD 586 per ton, still the highest level in the sub continent but under pressure from cheaper Iranian imports. The Pakistani Rupee recovered slightly to roughly PKR 282.6 per USD. Even so, this was the third consecutive week with no meaningful new arrivals at Gadani, apart from a small vessel that had been idling for more than a month. With demo indications near USD 400 per LDT for bulkers, USD 420 for tankers and USD 430 for containers, most buyers are watching India and waiting for more stable conditions before committing.

Turkey
The Turkish recycling market remained quiet and largely unchanged. Aliaga prices continue to sit around USD 260 per LDT for dry bulk, USD 270 for tankers and USD 280 for container units. The Turkish Lira weakened further past TRY 42.4 per USD, while local steel plate prices stagnated and demand stayed subdued. Limited vessel supply means yards are operating at reduced utilisation, with little sign of a near term shift in sentiment.

Market Sentiment
Across South Asia and Turkey, ship recyclers are navigating a difficult mix of weaker currencies, soft or stagnant steel prices, and restricted demolition supply, while regulatory scrutiny intensifies around the dark fleet and non compliant end of life trading. Against this backdrop, continued HKC progress in Bangladesh and the first expected approvals in Pakistan stand out as important long term positives. As the industry looks ahead to 2026, the key questions are how quickly older mainstream tonnage and shadow fleet units will transition into compliant yards, and whether improved freight and regulatory clarity can finally unlock a more sustained recycling cycle.
 

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